Category: Speculations

This Is Finally Panning Out  

Some Potential Winners And Losers If The Senate Immigration Bill Becomes Law

Gang Of Eight Disgorges Draft Immigration Bill Early Wednesday morning, the so-called “Gang of Eight” — United States Senators Schumer, Flake, McCain, Menendez, Rubio, Graham, Bennett, and Durbin — released the text of their 844 page immigration bill. Among other provisions, the bill would give legal status and a pathway to citizenship to the estimated [...]

Long Ford, Short Tesla

8 August 2012 Update: I sold the Ford calls yesterday for a small gain. Still holding the Tesla puts. ———————————————————————————————————————– Earlier this year, when Zynga was at $13 and change, I mentioned that Zynga’s high optimal hedging costs, as calculated by Portfolio Armor, might be a red flag for the stock. I didn’t know the [...]

Hedging versus Betting

In a recent article published on Seeking Alpha, I posted this screen cap, showing the optimal put to hedge the biotech stock Amylin Pharmaceuticals against a greater-than-29% drop over the next seven months: A commenter analogized the put to a lottery ticket and wrote about how unlikely it would be for an investor to “make [...]

High Optimal Hedging Costs Offer Another Warning

In a previous post, we noted that we’d seen several examples of high optimal hedging costs presaging poor performance in a stock. This is the most recent example. Last week, we noted the high optimal hedging cost for Zynga could be a warning: Steep hedging cost for $ZNGA (compare to last tweet re $QQQ). A [...]

A few updates

- Gold: sold those GLD puts for a 101.5% gain on Tuesday; reversed polarity and bought a few calls. No strong opinion on gold, just thought I’d try this after seeing Tim Knight’s end-of-day video on Monday, which suggested GLD might have hit a support level at the bottom of a channel (though his video [...]


I just submitted an article about this to Seeking Alpha, so if they publish it, I’ll link to it here [Update: it's been published: "Gold Gets Hammered"]. But in the meantime, here’s a tl;dr version: I wrote the two articles linked to below last month.  They proved to be good timing. After writing the second [...]

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