Category: Politics

Some Potential Winners And Losers If The Senate Immigration Bill Becomes Law

Gang Of Eight Disgorges Draft Immigration Bill Early Wednesday morning, the so-called “Gang of Eight” — United States Senators Schumer, Flake, McCain, Menendez, Rubio, Graham, Bennett, and Durbin — released the text of their 844 page immigration bill. Among other provisions, the bill would give legal status and a pathway to citizenship to the estimated [...]

Tweets of the Week

Micro blogging is quicker than regular blogging, but tweets are also more ephemeral: it’s pretty common for someone to read a blog post you wrote a day or a week ago, but not so common for someone to read something you tweeted an hour ago. With that in mind, I’m going to start picking 10 [...]

Making Sense of Mandates

For the most part, I’ve avoided writing about politics on this blog, sharing my opinions instead in 140 character bursts on Twitter. But since tweets seem to be more ephemeral than blog posts, I’m preserving a few salient ones in amber by embedding them below. This exchange occurred during the second Florida GOP debate last [...]

Me in the FT, and a little more AYSI

– I neglected to mention this at the time, but I picked up a few more shares of AYSI on Thursday at $0.75. No new news on it, but when I saw it hit .75 I entered a limit order which was partially filled. This was my most recent Seeking Alpha article on the company, [...]

Hedging Update — Post Debt Ceiling Edition

Hedging costs after the debt deal Last week, with the debt ceiling negotiations dragging on, we looked at the costs of hedging a handful of equity index, gold-, Treasury bond-, and dollar index-tracking ETFs. Below is a snapshot showing the current hedging costs of the same basket of ETFs. Hedging against a >30% correction in [...]

Hedging Update — Default Watch Edition

Credit Suisse on the consequences of a default On Thursday, Credit Suisse’s global strategy team said that a U.S. default was still unlikely. However, they predicted that if the U.S. did default, stocks would suffer a 30% drop. Hedging against a >30% correction in stocks With that in mind, the table below shows the costs, [...]

Cost of Hedging Treasury Bond Exposure Still Low, but Rising

The chances of a debt ceiling deal The Intrade prediction market enables participants to bet on whether Congress will approve an increase in the U.S. debt ceiling to $15.1 trillion on or before three dates: July 31st, August 31st, and September 30th. As of Tuesday evening, these were the chances of debt ceiling deals by [...]

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