Credit Suisse on the consequences of a default
On Thursday, Credit Suisse’s global strategy team said that a U.S. default was still unlikely. However, they predicted that if the U.S. did default, stocks would suffer a 30% drop.
Hedging against a >30% correction in stocks
With that in mind, the table below shows the costs, as [...]
The chances of a debt ceiling deal
The Intrade prediction market enables participants to bet on whether Congress will approve an increase in the U.S. debt ceiling to $15.1 trillion on or before three dates: July 31st, August 31st, and September 30th. As of Tuesday evening, these were the chances of [...]
– Richard Florida was back this week, with another implausible job creation idea. My article about it on Seeking Alpha: “Richard Florida’s Latest Job Creation Idea“.
– In an earlier article (“Helping House Majority Leader Eric Cantor Hedge His Treasuries Exposure“), I mentioned a way to hedge against a U.S. default by using [...]
Seeking Alpha published this article of mine yesterday which recaps recent events with Alloy Steel International and offers a forward-looking speculation or two.
With weak economic data and renewed risks from the Euro zone, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) ticked up again Thursday to 22.73, its highest level since March. The table below shows the costs, as of Thursday’s close, of hedging 18 [...]
Are women better investors than men? That’s what David Weidner argued in his widely-tweeted MarketWatch column Tuesday, “Women are better investors, and here’s why“.
From Sex Scandals to Investing
After reminding readers of recent sexual scandals involving male politicians, Weidner actually made a broader argument, that women are better at pretty much everything:
Why is it [...]
Portfolio Armor update
The finance academic who developed Portfolio Armor’s algorithm successfully defended his doctoral thesis and now has his Ph.D. He and I plan to meet later this month to discuss adding the capability to Portfolio Armor to hedge short positions with calls (should be doable) and potentially adding collar capability (will require some preliminary [...]