Steam Catapult - Launching Innovation

The Cheesecake Factory was probably packed simply because they make damn good food. (IMO)
The economy tends to catch up to the best last.

A lot of mediocre chains like the ones owned by DIN are struggling.

A large portion of diners may not have actually stopped paying their mortgages, but just whatever they perceive as their less-important bills in general, like medical bills or credit cards. I think a lot of people who still have a job feel like they are under seige and ultimately doomed, even if they do not understand how or why, so they just kind of say "eff it" and live in the moment.

The Cheesecake Factory's food isn't bad, IMO (and they offer ginormous portions), but I never understood why they have dozens of cheesecakes but they're all New York style. Why not at least one Italian style (though, to be fair, it's hard to find an Italian style cheesecake even at an Italian restaurant around here)?

The same mall where this Cheesecake Factory is has a privately-held chain with better food though, Houston's (incidentally, I wouldn't be surprised if Houston's parent the Hillstone Group is planning to go public in the not-too-distant future. I noticed recently that they changed the name of their two Houston's locations in Manhattan to "Hillstones", probably to increase the parent company's name recognition).

I think you're general point about consumers blowing off some of their debt (whether mortgage or credit cards) and saying "eff it" is on target.

Here's what all those potentially unemployed workers have to look forward to. Our country's grand future. Why not party now?

All the more reason we need comprehensive immigration reform so we can flood even those jobs with desperate immigrants and lower their wages even further.

Low carb cheesecake? Isn't it all mostly fat anyway? That's like me saying I've been good because I'm only eating non-fat maple syrup on my pancakes. Ummm, there's no fat in in maple syrup anyway...

Dave, methinks your reaction about why the Cheesecake Factory is packed (on a weekend no less) is wildly fanciful. "Probably" a lot of diners stopped paying their mortgages? Come on! I know you're bearish on the economy (and I think we're headed for another downturn too) but it seems like the conclusions you're drawing here have literally nothing to do with the situation you are viewing. What if I were to say that TCF was jammed because everyone was celebrating the World Cup? Or maybe it's because everyone cooked out and ate at home over the holiday weekend so they want to go out to eat this weekend? Those explanations are about as likely (and arguably more so) than "probably a lot of diners stopped paying their mortgages" and all this without you taking into account WHERE TCF that you went to is located. Maybe if it were in Florida, Michigan, Nevada, etc. but if you went to one in Washington DC for example, there's not much reason to believe that a lot of diners stopped paying their mortgages there.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that while I understand that you feel we are in a certain situation with the economy, looking at everything and trying to shoehorn an observation (like TCF is crowded) to support your view of the economy seems a severe over-reach...

Here's John Hussman quoting Meredith Whitney:

"And here's where I would have never imagined... what happened over the past year-plus is that the government and the banks have provided a lot of mortgage modification programs, and consumers have been smart enough to say ok, if I wait, I'm going to get a better deal on a modification in 2, 3, 6 months. So I'm going to pay the things I need the most - my credit card bill, my auto bill, and even my home equity loan bill to a certain extent, and they've been not paying their mortgage bill."

I'm on Atkins currently. Fat is fine, carbs aren't. The low carb cheesecake has Splenda instead of sugar and a different crust (one with crushed nuts and butter subbing out some of the graham cracker crumbs, I think).

Point taken about it being a weekend, but we've been on Mondays and seen the place nearly as busy. Point taken too about the location. Although NJ's unemployment rate is about the national average, the unemployment rate in this county (Bergen County) isn't quite as bad. But according to the New York Fed, about 15% of prime mortgages in this county are not current.

The problem with Atkins is that over the long term no one ever seems to cut the carbs down to the point where the fat they eat does not accumulate as...well, fat. In my opinion it's best to jump straight to the "lifetime maintenance" phase and only eat whole, unprocessed foods. But there's no money in selling that uncomplicated system.

Atkins's version of lifetime maintenance still involves limiting carbs -- basically, his idea is to gradually add carbs back, about 5 grams per day per week, until you start gaining weight, and that daily level of carbs is the level you need to stay under to maintain your weight. I have no illusions that I'll be doing that, and that's not my plan.

I've done this diet a couple of times before, losing about 40lbs the first time, and about 30lbs the second time. This time started off a little slowly, with me only dropping about 7 lbs in the first 5 weeks. But I dropped another 6 lbs in week #6. I like carbs too much to ever stick with Atkins long term. My plan is to ratchet up my calorie burning to a level where I can pretty much eat what I want.

I figure if I can work up to running about 20 miles per week, I should be able to eat most of what I like. Right now, I'm up to 32 minutes on the treadmill at a 2.0% incline and an embarrassingly slow jogging speed. My plan keep the speed an incline steady and up the time by 2 minutes every three sessions or so.

I've also been lifting a little this time around. I'm trying a variation of Tim Ferriss's idea about one doing just one set of every exercise, since I don't have the patience for multiple sets anymore. Plus, multiple sets with the GF would require a lot of weight stripping.

So far, it's been working well, as I've been moving up in weight (part of that's just muscle memory, as I've done these weights before in the past, but I'm still satisfied with it). I do one lower body workout (after the treadmill: squats, dead lifts, leg curls, calve raises, side bends, and an ab exercise) and two upper body workouts (dumbbell bench, lat raises, lat pull downs, curls, ab exercise / dumbbell flies, militaries, lat pull downs, curls, ab exercise).

I couldn't find recent national unemployment numbers for my post, take a moment to clear your mind where I mention grads and other young folks hitting a wall of unemployment.

Your first link provided great but depressing background info.

Glad to be of help. See also the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics where you can slice and dice by geographic area and demographic category. Will check out your blog post shortly.